Abstract: Normally grown and free people will choose the places where they can survive or have a good fit with the environment, and usually avoid the situation which will get them into risk, even the perceived risk. To achieve the purpose of stability and development of the western frontier requires efforts and consistence of the people, especially the college students, who will soon step out to the society and become the mainstay in the nearly future. The directions that college students orient upon graduation will influence the future of a place. It’s important for the college and the local government to know the social attitude of college students. The purpose of this study was to examine the effect of risk perception on students’ leave or stay intention, which was directed or mediated by other psychological variables, such as place identity. 557 college students, 297 from minority classes (Min Class), and 260 from majority classes (Han Class) of the southern Xinjiang were sampled and administered with three measures, namely Risk Perception Scale, Leave or Stay Intention Scale, and Place Identity Scale. The mean differences between the Min and Han Class on the three variables were tested by three independent t tests. The results indicated that students from Min Class had significantly lower risk perception, higher place identity, and higher stay intention than that of the students from Han Class, and the effect sizes of the differences measured by Cohen’s d were 0.90, 1.13, and 0.74 respectively, reached median to high level. The inter-correlations among these three variables on Min and Han samples ranged between 0.46 and 0.78, and there were no differences between Min Class and Han Class when analyzed on separated samples. Hierarchical regression analyses on two separated samples were conducted to examine the mediation effect of place identity. Results showed that risk perception and place identity explained about 60% variance of the leave or stay intention, about 70~80% effect of risk perception on leave or stay intention was mediated by place identity. Another model that the effect of place identity on leave or stay intention was mediated by risk perception was tested and was not supported by data. Then, multi-group path analysis was conducted to check if the mediation effects were the same in two samples. The equivalences of the three path coefficients were found, and 77% effect of risk perception on leave or stay intention was mediated by place identity. The implication of this study is that it’s necessary to grasp the social-psychological condition of the young students to develop related strategies, especially for the west frontier. The central and local governments should try the best to build a safe city, to enhance the place identity of the population through software and hardware constructing, then more and more talents would be attracted into the city and more college students would stay at the district, living and working together for a better future.

Key words: Leave or Stay Intention, Risk Perception, Place Identity, Mediation Effect

摘要： 为探究西部边疆大学生的去留意向及影响因素，采用问卷法测量557名某民汉合校大学生的去留意向、风险知觉和地方认同。结果发现：民语言班学生得分显著高于汉语言班学生；个体觉得当地风险越低、越值得放心，对当地的认同程度就会越高，继而更愿意选择留下来；地方认同的中介作用在民、汉语言班学生中是一致的。启示地方治理者需致力于营造安全的社会氛围，提升人们的地方认同，吸引更多的人进来并留下来，以促进边疆的稳定和发展。

关键词: 去留意向, 风险知觉, 地方认同, 中介效应