关键词: 乐观偏差 解释水平理论 心理距离

Abstract: Optimistic bias means that people tend to believe that they are more likely to experience positive events and less likely to experience negative events, which is divided into two sub types: one is the bias point to positive events and another is the bias point to negative events. Egocentrism and fatalism are the main psychological cognitive mechanisms to cause optimistic bias. Construal level theory (CLT) is a cognitive theory which could account for psychological distance affects judgment and decision making. Many researches have shown that people tend to construal psychological distant objects in terms of high level, abstract representation, whereas construal the same object in term of low level, detailed representation if the object is psychologically near. Does the Construal level theory affect the individual's optimistic bias? This study tries to investigate the degree of optimistic bias in different psychological distant. Based on Construal Level Theory, this study explored the influence of psychological distance on the optimistic bias effect. The study examined the effects of psychological distant on optimistic bias effect by conducting the single factor- two levels experiment from three dimensions (event probability, time distant, and space distant) of psychological distance. Through the open questionnaire survey, and 94 subjects were pre - measured, a total of 24 future events as a formal experiment of the material use. In this study, the indirect comparison method was used to evaluate the possibility of the future event occurring in themselves and others. The event probability in the questionnaire expressed as a percentage. The formal participants were recruited from the students of university, and the ratio of participants’ gender distributed to each dimension is balance. We collected 677 valid subjects finally by every participant finishing one of the situational questionnaires randomly. The results showed that: judgment of participants for future life events in all dimensions showed optimism bias. The psychological distant of participant affects the whole optimistic bias effect. Specific performance is: The overall optimistic bias of the small probability event was significantly higher than the large probability event of the optimistic bias, t (220) =-10.28, p<0.001, d=-1.06; the overall optimistic bias of the far time distance is significantly higher than that of the optimistic bias of the near time, t (222) =-7.45, p<0.001, d=-1.16; and the overall optimistic bias of the far space is significantly higher than that of the optimistic bias of near space, t (230) =-5.73, p<0.001, d=-.75. But in the positive event dimension, only the small probability event and the far space dimension show optimistic bias effect. From the construal level perspective, through integrating of the three dimensions of psychological distance, the study examines systematically the influence of psychological distance on the optimistic bias. The effect of optimistic bias was more significant in the far psychological distant conditions (including high probability, more distant time, and more distant space) than in the near psychological distant conditions. In addition, the optimism bias on negative events of probability and time distant dimension has not consistent with the overall optimism bias. The result supported the hypothesis reliability. Future study should pay attention to the multi-paradigm and interaction.

Key words: optimistic bias, construal level theory, psychological distant