Abstract: Cognitive neuroeconomic model put forward that emotion and cognition were the important factors affecting risk decision-making following disaster event. Previous emotion and overconfidence were emotion and cognition factors influencing risk decision-making following disaster event respectively. Shall do previous mood and overconfidence affect risk decision-making following disaster event separately, or influence risk decision-making following disaster event commonly? The answer was still found in former studies. Purposes: The study explored the effect of previous emotion and overconfidence on risk decision-making following the disaster event. Procedures & Methods: Firstly, 200 undergraduates were measured by using overconfidence questionnaire. 40 undergraduates were chosen as high overconfidence individuals because their overconfidence score was more than or equal to 35 points, and 40 undergraduates were chosen as low overconfidence individuals because their overconfidence score was less than or equal to 20 points. Thus, 80 subjects were obtained in the formal experiment. In the formal experiment, 20 high overconfidence and 20 low overconfident subjects were selected randomly to participate in the experiment of positive emotional group, while the remaining 20 high overconfidence individuals and 20 low overconfidence subjects took part in negative emotional group experiment. All formal experiment subjects had to complete the emotion self-rating scale and risk decision-making questionnaire following disaster. Results & Conclusions: The results showed that (1) Positive and negative emotions video induced the emotions experiment required. (2)The main effect of previous emotion was significant and risk decision-making of individuals under positive emotion more tend to risk seeking than that under negative emotion. The research outcome further supported the affective generalization hypothesis (Johnson & Tversky, 1983). Positive emotion led individual reduce perceptions of risk events frequency significantly, which made the prediction and estimation of decision makers more optimistic. However, Negative emotion enhanced the perceived frequency of risk events, which made individual to have more pessimistic risk estimate; The main effect of overconfidence was significant and risk decision-making of individuals under high overconfidence more tend to risk seeking than that under low overconfidence. Positive emotions made overconfident individuals to overestimated the ability of self decision or self-control results, and had the the error of predictive validity of different information sources, which led subjects underestimate the probability of risk events and tend to risk seeking. The above result conformed to the self improvement theory hypothesis, which meant the risk value depends on the service the inner depths of the self improvement expectations. And for individual of low overconfident level, positive emotions could not enhance their confidence level, but they hoped to avoid risks and maintained the status and tended to risk aversion following the disaster event. (3) Previous emotion and overconfidence had interaction effect. Individual of high overconfidence in a positive emotional state more tend to risk seeking than that in the negative emotional state; There was no significant difference on overconfident level of individual in the different negative emotional state. Innovation: The study expands the risk decision making theory, which also supports the cognitive neuroeconomic theory. Furthermore, both emotion and overconfidence affected risk decision making following the disaster event commonly. The study provides new evidence for neural mechanism of risk decision-making following the disaster event.

Key words: previous emotion, overconfidence, disaster event, risk decision-making

摘要： 研究考察了先前情绪和过度自信对灾难事件后继风险决策的影响。结果发现：(1)先前情绪的主效应显著, 积极情绪比消极情绪的个体在灾后风险决策时更加倾向于风险寻求；过度自信的主效应显著, 高过度自信比低过度自信个体在灾后风险决策时更加倾向于风险寻求。(2)先前情绪和过度自信水平交互影响灾难事件后继风险决策。高过度自信者在积极情绪状态下比在消极情绪状态下更倾向于风险寻求; 消极情绪状态下过度自信水平不同的个体之间没有显著差异。

关键词: 先前情绪, 过度自信, 灾难事件, 风险决策