关键词: 情绪预测, 样例锚定效应, 教师, 学生, 典型样例

Abstract: Emotional forecasting refers to the prediction of the individual and others’ emotional state in the future. Large number of studies found that it is difficult to accurately predict future emotion and emotional forecasting bias often appear. Previous studies show that the forecasting future emotional usually built on the basis of past emotional experience or memory. However，extraction of emotional memory has gone wrong and thus emotional forecasting bias occur. In other words，people's emotional forecasting could be affected by emotional example of memory (example anchor). But in the past，the researches in this field only involve individual forecasting their own future emotion. In this study，by taking teachers forecasting students' emotions for example，the purpose of the two experiments is to examine whether there is example anchoring effect when it refers to interpersonal emotions forecasting. Firstly，we hypothesis that teachers’ memories of students' emotional response will affect the teachers to make prediction when teachers forecasting students’ emotions. Furthermore，we hypothesis that example anchoring does not necessarily guarantee emotional forecasting accuracy. Only when typical examples are extracted and teachers base typical examples on foresting anchor，teachers can make accurate emotional forecasting. Experiment 1，by using free recall paradigm 65 teachers participants (an average of 16.46 years teaching experience) forecasted the emotional reaction of the students in two typical educational scenarios of the public recognition and misconceptions students. Specifically，teachers were requested to freely recall the examples of the scenarios and then forecasted students’ emotions. After examples of students' emotional reactions were encoded，participants were divided into two groups including calm emotions example anchor and strong emotions example anchor. The experiment results confirmed the hypothesis: the more intense emotions of students in the example is，the more strong teachers foresting students’ emotion is，the lower teachers’ emotional forecasting accuracy is. Experiment 2，68 teachers participants (an average of 6.34 years teaching experience) were selected and two typical scenarios of positive expectations and caring students were selected. Through example priming paradigm we investigated example anchoring effect，the experimental results again confirmed the research hypotheses. The two experiments selected different typical educational scenarios and conducted different example anchor manipulation method. Consequently，the results are exactly the same: example anchoring effect indeed exist when it refer to the process of interpersonal emotional forecasting such as teachers’ forecasting students’ emotion. However，only typical example anchor can promote emotional foresting accuracy.

Key words: emotional forecasting, example anchoring effect, teachers, students, typical example