Abstract: Prediction is a fundamental principle underlying human information processing (Clark, 2013; Friston, 2005) and much research supports the existence of predictability effects. But the when question has so far received the least attention (Huettig, 2015). At what stage does the predictability effect occur in word recognition? According to the Interaction Theory, the language processing system of different levels is an interactive processing course. If there is an interaction between two variables, it indicates that the two variables act on the same processing stage at the same time (Danks, 1983). In the present study, eye movement tracking technology was used to investigate the interaction of predictability and word frequency, and the interaction of predictability and stroke number on the processing of word recognition during normal Chinese reading. Based on that, the present study explored the word recognition processing stage where there is an impact of predictability effect. In experiment 1, word frequency was selected as the variable of lexical processing stage and in experiment 2, the stroke number was selected as the variable of the pre-lexical processing stage; the main aim of the experiments was to explore the influence of predictability, word frequency and stroke number on word recognition in normal reading processing. The main effect of predictability, word frequency, and stroke number was found, but the interaction of predictability and word frequency, and the interaction of predictability and stroke number on word recognition were not found. Furthermore, in the present study, there was a significant effect of the predictability. Fixation time of high predictable words was significantly shorter than low predictable words, and the predictability not only affects the early reading time (first fixation time and gaze duration), but also affects the late measures (regression path duration and total reading time), which indicates that predictability effect is a very stable factor of cognitive processing which is able to instantly influence the reader's reading process (Staub, 2011; Rayner et al., 1996). Although there is no interaction of predictability and word frequency and no interaction of predictability and stroke number, the possibility of predictability effect acting independently on the lexical stage or the pre-lexical stage cannot be denied. Secondly, this result also provides a possibility of the predictability effect acting on the post-lexical stage. However, since it is difficult to separate the predictability effect from the semantic integration effect in the post-lexical processing stage, it is difficult to conduct direct verification. Thirdly, according to the results, it is speculated that the predictability effect may also act on the stage which is before the word recognition stage. Previous studies have shown that readers can obtain the semantic, phonetic and orthographic information of high predictable target words through the pre-activation mechanism (Delong et al., 2005; Ito et al., 2016). But further research is needed to confirm this account. To sum up, there is significant effect of predictability, word frequency and stroke number in Chinese reading, which will independently affect the word recognition processing. The results from the present study are more consistent with the research hypothesis of the E-Z reader model.

Key words: predictability, word frequency, stroke number, word recognition, eye movement

摘要： 预期性是阅读研究领域中的一个热点问题，但关于预期性发生作用的加工阶段问题缺少实证考察和解释(Huettig, 2015)。本研究采用眼动追踪技术，通过对预期性和词频、预期性和笔画数在词汇识别过程中是否存在交互作用进行考察，以探讨预期性效应对词汇识别产生影响的加工阶段。结果显示，预期性和词频、预期性和笔画数之间均不存在交互作用，由此表明，预期性、词频和笔画数均独立地对中文文本阅读中的词汇识别产生显著的影响，该结果符合E-Z读者模型的研究假设。

关键词: 预期性, 词频, 笔画数, 词汇识别, 眼动